Just Desserts
It’s often
said that presidents’ actions rarely have a significant impact on our economy;
there are too many unpredictable forces that determine the course of GDP,
unemployment figures, productivity, interest rates (the Federal Reserve), and
more. But when the economy is good, they
claim credit, and when it’s not they are usually blamed, even though they largely
might have been bystanders.
There are
exceptions, though. President Obama was
inaugurated into the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression. Most agree that his administration’s economic
stimulus bill did help the country avert another catastrophic depression and
set it on the road to recovery, with the help of the Fed’s own policies.
Donald
Trump was fortunate to walk into Obama’s steadily improving, though incomplete
recovery. Within a year he was claiming
credit for the economy’s continuing trajectory, and he juiced it, temporarily,
with the huge tax cuts for the wealthy and businesses.
Now he has
forced a trade war with China, an action which is very likely to affect the US
economy. Interestingly, he has some
bipartisan support for his moves. Over
the next year and a half we might well see a recession play out, just in time
for the 2020 election, resulting in a likely victory for the Democratic
candidate, who might ultimately be the beneficiary of a China problem somewhat
resolved . . . and the beginning of a new recovery.
Some might
see an ironic justice in such a conclusion.
Publishing history:
Times H-R 5/20
